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The ‘smart money’ says buy stocks, but not till November By Tomi Kilgore

September 18, 2014

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — There’s a Wall Street trading axiom, that the more people who believe in a specific scenario, the less likely that scenario will play out. So if more than 70% of so-called “smart money” investors expect the S&P 500 to pull back slightly into October, then rally to a new high by year’s end, does that mean the market won’t dip, or that it won’t recover?

Sterne Agee chief market technician Carter Braxton Worth said don’t be so quick to bet against the crowd. He’s learned from surveys of market professionals over the years that the correct scenario tends to be either the clear consensus, or the extreme outlier. If that plays out again this year, investors should either wait about a month before buying, or just buy now. Either way, investors could be in a pretty good mood on New Years Eve.

In his latest poll, Worth surveyed 492 market professionals, including portfolio managers, analysts, traders and high-net-worth individuals, asking which of the six market scenarios he provided they believed the S&P 500 SPX, +0.49%  will follow through the end of the year.

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